沖刺必備>>2008考研最后20天沖刺復習與核心考點預測專題

　　War games are commonly used by the military to evaluate strategies, explore scenarios and reveal unexpected weaknesses. American ships and aircraft have just begun two weeks of war games in the Gulf, prompting protests from Iran, and last week South Korea carried out an annual computerised war-game exercise.

　　Might war games deserve a greater role in business? Military analogies abound in the corporate world. Plenty of bosses look to Sun Tzu, an ancient Chinese general, for management tips. And in business, as in war, outcomes depend on what others do, as well as one's own actions. Yet many firms fail to think systematically about how rivals will react to their plans—and traditional planning does a poor job of taking competitors' responses into account, says John McDermott, head of strategy at Xerox, an office-equipment company. Corporate war games, which simulate the interactions of multiple actors in a market, provide a better way to do so.

　　Such games have two chief characteristics. First, players break into teams and take on the roles of fierce competitors (and sometimes other citizens, such as customers). Second, the games involve several turns, allowing competitors not just to draw up their own strategies but to respond to the choices of others. Their popularity is rising. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), a consultancy, is running 100 war games a year, up from around 50 three years ago. Open Options, a Canadian strategy consultancy, has been going since 1996 and its revenue doubled last year.

　　BAH introduces a quantitative element into its games, calculating the effect of each team's strategy on their company's profits and stockmarket value at the end of each turn. Open Options takes a further step. To help Xerox understand the market dynamics of the print and copy industry, it ran a one-day workshop in which teams from Xerox took the roles of the big companies in the market, itself included. Each team identified the things “their” company could do to change its strategy and drew up a list of its desired outcomes; these “preference trees” were shared with the other teams. The results were then pumped into Open Options' proprietary software tools, which played out interactions between the companies and produced a range of possible outcomes.

　　Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing: one forecast, that a company would start to acquire a certain group of assets within the industry, came true within six months. By shedding light on areas where companies have different priorities, the concept of preference trees helps to highlight potential trade-offs, as well as competition. Open Options charges North American clients roughly $100,000 for an engagement.

　　The secret of successful war-gaming does not simply lie in mathematics, however. Interaction, not algebra, is the best way to win support for a new strategy. Game-players must be senior for the same reason—although having the top boss on a team can stifle feedback. Strategies also have to capture competitors' hard-to-quantify corporate cultures: when designing a game, BAH seeks out employees at its clients who have actually worked at competitors for that reason. But perhaps war games' greatest value lies in the way they encourage managers to think differently about the consequences of their actions. “To know your enemy, you must become your enemy,” as Sun Tzu would say.

　　注（1）：本文選自Economist, 05/31/2007

　　注（2）：本文習題命題模仿對象：第1題模仿2002年真題Text 2第2題和Text 5第3題，第3題模仿1995年真題Text 2第4題，第4題模仿2000年真題Text 4第3題，第5題模仿1998年真題Text 2第4題。
1． The expression “abound in” (Line 1, Paragraph 2) most probably means _______.

　　[A] be limited
　　[B] be appreciated
　　[C] be driven
　　[D] be plentiful

　　2． According to the text, traditional corporate planning _______.

　　[A] has been completely abandoned.
　　[B] fails to consider rivals’ reactions.
　　[C] includes the detailed analyses of strategies of all rival companies.
　　[D] functions well for the development of most companies.

　　3． The positive effect of war games owes to the following EXCEPT_______.
　　[A] the role playing of competitors
　　[B] the composition of several turns
　　[C] the introduction of quantitative factors
　　[D] the rising popularity of the game

　　4． Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?

　　[A] Both BAH and Open Options developed their own software tools for data analysis of war games.
　　[B] The war game service expands slowly because of its high fee.
　　[C] “Preference trees” refers to desired outcomes of the companies.
　　[D] War game’s predictive ability is not convincing

　　5． Which of the following is NOT a reason for the success of war games?

　　[A] feedback
　　[B] mathematics
　　[C] interaction
　　[D] consideration of enemy

　　篇章剖析

　　本文是一篇說明文，圍繞實戰(zhàn)演習的商業(yè)用途及其價值這個話題進行了分析。第一段先簡單介紹了什么是實戰(zhàn)演習，第二段則立刻引入話題，指出公司制定戰(zhàn)略的傳統(tǒng)方式存在的缺點，從而提出本文的主要觀點，即公司實戰(zhàn)演習能夠幫助更好地理解自身與競爭對手的狀況。第三段介紹了實戰(zhàn)演習的兩個特點；第四、五段介紹了兩家提供實戰(zhàn)演習服務的咨詢公司策劃的實戰(zhàn)演習內容及其效果。最后一段對文章進行了總結，進一步指出了實戰(zhàn)演習的重要價值所在。　

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