Forecasting of Statistics

　　Nearly two thousand years have passed since a census decreed by Caesar Augustus become part of the greatest story ever told. Many things have changed in the intervening years. The hotel industry worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests. Now it is the census taker that does the traveling in the fond hope that a highly mobile population will stay long enough to get a good sampling. Methods of gathering, recording, and evaluating information have presumably been improved a great deal. And where then it was the modest purpose of Rome to obtain a simple head count as an adequate basis for levying taxes, now batteries of complicated statistical series furnished by governmental agencies and private organizations are eagerly scanned and interpreted by sages and seers to get a clue to future events. The Bible does not tell us how the Roman census takers made out, and as regards our more immediate concern, the reliability of present day economic forecasting, there are considerable differences of opinion. They were aired at the celebration of the 125th anniversary of the American Statistical Association. There was the thought that business forecasting might well be on its way from an art to a science, and some speakers talked about newfangled computers and high-falutin mathematical system in terms of excitement and endearment which we, at least in our younger years when these things mattered, would have associated more readily with the description of a fair maiden. But others pointed to the deplorable record of highly esteemed forecasts and forecasters with a batting average below that of the Mets, and the President-elect of the Association cautioned that “high powered statistical methods are usually in order where the facts are crude and inadequate, the exact contrary of what crude and inadequate statisticians assume.” We left his birthday party somewhere between hope and despair and with the conviction, not really newly acquired, that proper statistical methods applied to ascertainable facts have their merits in economic forecasting as long as neither forecaster nor public is deluded into mistaking the delineation of probabilities and trends for a prediction of certainties of mathematical exactitude.

　　1. Taxation in Roman days apparently was based on

　　[A]. wealth. [B]. mobility. [C]. population. [D]. census takers.

　　2. The American Statistical Association

　　[A]. is converting statistical study from an art to a science.

　　[B]. has an excellent record in business forecasting.

　　[C]. is neither hopeful nor pessimistic.

　　[D]. speaks with mathematical exactitude.

　　3. The message the author wishes the reader to get is

　　[A]. statisticians have not advanced since the days of the Roman.

　　[B]. statistics is not as yet a science.

　　[C]. statisticians love their machine.

　　[D].computer is hopeful.

　　4. The “greatest story ever told” referred to in the passage is the story of

　　[A]. Christmas. [B]. The Mets.

　　[C]. Moses. [D]. Roman Census Takers.

　　[page]

　　詞匯解析

　　1. census 人口調(diào)查

　　2. decreed 分布法令

　　3. influx 匯集，流入(人口或物)

　　4. census taker 人口調(diào)查員

　　5. in the intervening years 在這期間

　　6. sampling 取樣(調(diào)查)

　　7. presumable 可能的，可推測(cè)的

　　8. batteries 一連串，一系列

　　9. sage 圣人;聰明的(人—)

　　10. seer 先知

　　11. newfangled 新型的(貶義)

　　12. high-falutin 夸大的，夸張的

　　13. deplorable 悲慘的，雜亂的

　　14. batting average 平均成功率(原指擊球平均得分?jǐn)?shù))

　　15. ascertainable 可以確定的/確切的

　　16. delineation 描述

　　17. exactitude 精確

　　1. The hotel industry worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests.

　　[結(jié)構(gòu)簡(jiǎn)析] 復(fù)合句。And后為虛擬條件句。

　　[參考譯文] 旅館業(yè)就憂慮旅館建的太多，不愁人太多。但是如果他們不得不碰到意想不到大批旅客，沒(méi)有什么旅館會(huì)有一位經(jīng)理去安排疲憊不堪的客人的食宿。

　　答案詳解

　　1. C. 人口。答案在第六句，“那時(shí)羅馬計(jì)算人頭作為征稅的適當(dāng)基礎(chǔ)，目的很簡(jiǎn)單。”

　　A. 財(cái)富。 B. 流動(dòng)性。 C. 人口調(diào)查員。

　　2. A. 正把統(tǒng)計(jì)研究從文科轉(zhuǎn)變成理科。這是從第六句開(kāi)始講的一種觀點(diǎn)�！艾F(xiàn)在，政府機(jī)構(gòu)和私人組織的一系列復(fù)雜的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字，由智者和先知人物殷切地瀏覽和解釋以取得預(yù)先外未來(lái)事件的線索。圣經(jīng)并沒(méi)有告訴我們羅馬的人口調(diào)查員是怎么調(diào)查統(tǒng)計(jì)的。至于我們當(dāng)前更加關(guān)心的問(wèn)題：目前經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)的可靠性，意見(jiàn)分歧很大。美國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)協(xié)會(huì)125周年慶�；顒�(dòng)上，人們?cè)诖笏列麚P(yáng)這些不同觀點(diǎn)。有一種說(shuō)法是經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)可能正從文科轉(zhuǎn)向科學(xué)(理科)發(fā)展。有些人興高采烈大談新型計(jì)算機(jī)和非常高級(jí)數(shù)學(xué)系統(tǒng)。”作者雖然沒(méi)有明說(shuō)，明眼人一看便知，藝術(shù)向科學(xué)轉(zhuǎn)變正是美國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)協(xié)會(huì)在把統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)從文科轉(zhuǎn)向理科。所以A. 對(duì)。

　　B. 在商業(yè)預(yù)測(cè)方面具有杰出的記錄。不對(duì)。實(shí)際上“平均成功率還低于the Mets”

　　C. 既沒(méi)有希望也不樂(lè)觀。文內(nèi)沒(méi)有提及。只提作者他們半喜半憂離開(kāi)協(xié)會(huì)。

　　D. 以數(shù)學(xué)的精確性來(lái)說(shuō)話。見(jiàn)下道題解釋。協(xié)會(huì)部分人卻有此看法“數(shù)學(xué)精確性。”

　　3. B. 統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)(到現(xiàn)在為止)還不是一門科學(xué)(理科)。文章最后幾句話�！斑B統(tǒng)計(jì)協(xié)會(huì)的主席也告戒說(shuō)高能統(tǒng)計(jì)法在實(shí)際材料原始和不允許的地方一般發(fā)揮正常。這跟低級(jí)的，不合適的統(tǒng)計(jì)員所假定的正好相反。我們懷著憂“希”摻半的心情離開(kāi)周年慶祝宴會(huì)，懷著確實(shí)不是新近才有的信念，相信應(yīng)用于確切材料上恰當(dāng)?shù)慕y(tǒng)計(jì)法在經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)中有它的貢獻(xiàn)，只要預(yù)測(cè)人員和公眾不受蒙蔽，誤呆板所述概率和趨勢(shì)當(dāng)作數(shù)學(xué)精確無(wú)比的預(yù)測(cè)就行�！�

　　A. 統(tǒng)計(jì)員從羅馬時(shí)代起就沒(méi)向前進(jìn)步過(guò)。 C. 統(tǒng)計(jì)員愛(ài)計(jì)算機(jī)。這兩項(xiàng)文內(nèi)沒(méi)有提到。 D. 計(jì)算機(jī)前程遠(yuǎn)大。文內(nèi)只講了有些人懷著興高采烈的心情大講新型計(jì)算機(jī)和非常高級(jí)數(shù)學(xué)“系統(tǒng)”，暗示了計(jì)算機(jī)大有希望。但不是所有人都這樣認(rèn)為的。最重要的計(jì)算機(jī)的應(yīng)用并不能改變這個(gè)事實(shí)：統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)不是立刻，而是文科。所以B. 對(duì)。

　　4. A. 基督，圣誕節(jié)，指基督的誕生。圣經(jīng)中的一個(gè)故事。

　　B. the Mets. 圣經(jīng)中率領(lǐng)希伯萊人出埃及的領(lǐng)袖，也作放債的猶太人講。 C. 摩西。 D. 羅馬人口調(diào)查員。

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